Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Arena zur Vogtlandweide
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.68)
1.16 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.2% | 24.8% | 27.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
1 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Krieschow | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Auerbach | 0 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 8.1% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Auerbach carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Auerbach +28.4, Krieschow -21.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Auerbach
vs
Krieschow
Elo gapAuerbach +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3111.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3111.6
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1585.6 | 1526 |
| Form Elo | 1615.6 | 1513.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527 | 1516.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1569.6 | 1620.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1575.9 | 1488.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +28.4 | -21.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Auerbach last-5 Elo change: +28.4; Krieschow last-5 Elo change: -21.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 40% |
| Attack | 50% | 56% |
| Defense | 88% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 50% | 54% | 52% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 42% | 15% | 28% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| Loses | 8% | 31% | 20% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
AuerbachLLWDDWLDWDWDLLWWWWDWDWWWW
KrieschowWLWWLWDLDDLLWDWWLLWLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 23 | 44 | 21 | 19 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 13 | 15 | 28 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Auerbach | Krieschow | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 52% | 83% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 32% | 42% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 16% | 29% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Auerbach | Krieschow |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 56.5% | 43.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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