Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Südstadion
Expected Goals
3.85 (league 1.56)
0.29 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 76.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
best score tips
3 - 0
15.2%
4 - 0
14.6%
2 - 0
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Wiedenbrück | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fortuna Köln | 0 | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.9% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 15.2% | 4.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.6% | 4.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 11.2% | 3.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Fortuna Köln carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 264 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fortuna Köln -20.5, Wiedenbrück -20.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fortuna Köln
vs
Wiedenbrück
Elo gapFortuna Köln +264
Home / draw / away67% / 18% / 15%
Expected home share82%
Combined Elo3049.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3049.4
Elo home share
82%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1639 | 1410.4 |
| Form Elo | 1639.3 | 1397.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1576.8 | 1450.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1694 | 1450.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1623.1 | 1377.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.5 | -20.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fortuna Köln last-5 Elo change: -20.5; Wiedenbrück last-5 Elo change: -20.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 13% |
| Attack | 47% | 27% |
| Defense | 60% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 60% | 60% | 60% | 29% | 0% | 14% |
| Draws | 40% | 20% | 30% | 36% | 20% | 28% |
| Loses | 0% | 20% | 10% | 36% | 80% | 59% |
Fortuna KölnWDLWDWWDWWDDWWDDWWWWWWDWWDWLWL
WiedenbrückWLLWLLLDDLLWLLLDLDLDWDLLLDLLD
League goals
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 28 | 64 | 24 | 9 | 33 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 11 | 14 | 25 | 22 | 38 | 60 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 53% | 66% | 90% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 23% | 28% | 72% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 7% | 10% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 0% | 7% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fortuna Köln | Wiedenbrück |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 78% | 22% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 93% | 7% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 37% | 63% |
| Total | 59.2% | 41.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.13 @ Betano
Draw8.00 @ Bet365
Away18.00 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.33 @ Bet365
Under 2.53.25 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.62 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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