Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Umea Energi Arena
Expected Goals
3.56 (league 1.69)
1.30 (league 1.53)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% |
best score tips
3 - 1
7.6%
4 - 1
6.7%
2 - 1
6.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Häcken II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Umeå | 0 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Umeå carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 193 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Umeå +12.9, Häcken II -21.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Umeå
vs
Häcken II
Elo gapUmeå +193
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo2960.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2960.8
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1559.2 | 1401.6 |
| Form Elo | 1581.7 | 1352.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.2 | 1472.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1628.5 | 1424.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1526.4 | 1354.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.9 | -21.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Umeå last-5 Elo change: +12.9; Häcken II last-5 Elo change: -21.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 2 | 2 |
| Form | 67% | 0% |
| Attack | 50% | 17% |
| Defense | 83% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3.5 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
78%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Wins | 0% | 100% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
UmeåWD
Häcken IILL
League goals
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Umeå | Häcken II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 0 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-4 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 2-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Umeå | Häcken II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 78% | 22% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 65% | 35% |
| Total | 74.5% | 25.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…