Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:30 •
Sportpark Duinwetering
Expected Goals
1.51 (league 1.77)
2.12 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.8% | 20.9% | 49.7% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.0%
1 - 1
8.5%
2 - 2
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Gemert | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Noordwijk | 0 | 2.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Gemert carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 71 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Noordwijk +7.3, Gemert -6.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Noordwijk
vs
Gemert
Elo gapGemert +71
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3093.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3093.5
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1493.6 | 1599.9 |
| Form Elo | 1494.1 | 1593.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.8 | 1579.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1605.8 | 1644.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1427.2 | 1541.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.3 | -6.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Noordwijk last-5 Elo change: +7.3; Gemert last-5 Elo change: -6.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 53% | 59% |
| Defense | 47% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 50% | 19% | 33% | 47% | 60% | 53% |
| Draws | 21% | 25% | 23% | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Loses | 29% | 56% | 43% | 13% | 20% | 17% |
NoordwijkDLLLWLDLWDWLLDWLWWLDLWLLWDWDWL
GemertLLDDWDWWDWWWWDWWDLWWWDLWDLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 19 | 46 | 30 | 31 | 61 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 16 | 21 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Noordwijk | Gemert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 73% | 87% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 53% | 63% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 17% | 43% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-2 | 2-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Noordwijk | Gemert |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 44.6% | 55.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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