Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 09:30 •
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi
Expected Goals
2.50 (league 1.60)
1.40 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.3% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.8%
3 - 1
7.4%
1 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Sudtirol U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lecco U19 | 0 | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lecco U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 160 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lecco U19 +0.2, Sudtirol U19 -13.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lecco U19
vs
Sudtirol U19
Elo gapLecco U19 +160
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo3044
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3044
Elo home share
72%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1584.4 | 1459.6 |
| Form Elo | 1589.9 | 1444.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1533 | 1468.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1661.5 | 1436.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1448.3 | 1544.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.2 | -13.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lecco U19 last-5 Elo change: +0.2; Sudtirol U19 last-5 Elo change: -13.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 27% |
| Attack | 55% | 9% |
| Defense | 50% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 69% | 50% | 59% | 43% | 8% | 26% |
| Draws | 8% | 36% | 22% | 29% | 46% | 37% |
| Loses | 23% | 14% | 19% | 29% | 46% | 37% |
Lecco U19LWDWDWLWWLWDWWDWWWWLWWWLDWD
Sudtirol U19DDDDLLWDDWDWWLWDLLLDWLLLWLD
League goals
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 27 | 60 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 13 | 21 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 96% | 85% | 74% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 41% | 33% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 22% | 7% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lecco U19 | Sudtirol U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 86% | 14% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 56.5% | 43.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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