Serie A Women
— Italy
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.54)
2.25 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.7% | 20.1% | 50.9% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.8%
1 - 1
7.8%
2 - 2
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Napoli W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AC Milan W | 0 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
AC Milan W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 62 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AC Milan W +17.4, Napoli W +5.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
AC Milan W
vs
Napoli W
Elo gapAC Milan W +62
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3027.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3027.9
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1527.6 | 1500.3 |
| Form Elo | 1537.8 | 1516.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.7 | 1502.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1562.4 | 1507.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1455.8 | 1506 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.4 | +5.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. AC Milan W last-5 Elo change: +17.4; Napoli W last-5 Elo change: +5.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 40% |
| Attack | 30% | 40% |
| Defense | 85% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| Draws | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 33% | 28% |
| Loses | 33% | 33% | 33% | 33% | 22% | 28% |
AC Milan WWLLWWLDWLDWWLLDWDW
Napoli WWWLDLWWLLDWWWDDLDW
League goals
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 13 | 28 | 10 | 17 | 27 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 14 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 13 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AC Milan W | Napoli W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 67% | 72% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 33% | 44% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 11% | 22% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 11% | 11% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-3 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AC Milan W | Napoli W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 81% | 19% |
| Total | 63.7% | 36.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.01 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.47 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ William Hill
No2.05 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.87 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
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