Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Football pitch Velvary
Expected Goals
1.88 (league 1.72)
2.21 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.4% | 20.2% | 43.6% |
best score tips
1 - 2
7.7%
2 - 2
7.2%
1 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Velké Hamry | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Slovan Velvary | 0 | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 3.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Slovan Velvary +9.7, Velké Hamry -39.2.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Slovan Velvary
vs
Velké Hamry
Elo gapSlovan Velvary +7
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo2984.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2984.2
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1478.2 | 1506 |
| Form Elo | 1499.2 | 1479.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1467.4 | 1525.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1566.5 | 1697.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1390.8 | 1487.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.7 | -39.2 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Slovan Velvary last-5 Elo change: +9.7; Velké Hamry last-5 Elo change: -39.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 13% |
| Attack | 39% | 11% |
| Defense | 50% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 18% | 33% | 26% | 33% | 17% | 25% |
| Draws | 18% | 8% | 13% | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Loses | 64% | 58% | 61% | 33% | 50% | 42% |
Slovan VelvaryLLDLDLLLLLLLLWWLWWWLLDW
Velké HamryWDLWLWLLWWLDWLLDDDDDLLLD
League goals
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 15 | 35 | 21 | 15 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 26 | 26 | 52 | 18 | 22 | 40 |
| GA avg | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 91% | 67% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 65% | 38% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 39% | 29% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 17% | 13% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Slovan Velvary | Velké Hamry |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 78% | 22% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 55.4% | 44.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.50 @ Bet365
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away2.70 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.73 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.30 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.49 @ Marathonbet
No2.39 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…