Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.25)
0.74 (league 0.86)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | 34.6% | 28.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
19.3%
1 - 0
17.4%
0 - 1
14.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Tonnerre | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bafmeng United | 0 | 19.3% | 14.4% | 5.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.4% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Bafmeng United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bafmeng United -12.4, Tonnerre +15.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bafmeng United
vs
Tonnerre
Elo gapBafmeng United +38
Home / draw / away42% / 26% / 32%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2965.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2965.4
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1484.4 | 1481 |
| Form Elo | 1471 | 1482.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.4 | 1500.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1410.7 | 1443.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.3 | 1532.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.4 | +15.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bafmeng United last-5 Elo change: -12.4; Tonnerre last-5 Elo change: +15.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 47% |
| Attack | 50% | 83% |
| Defense | 33% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
53%
FT probability
2.5+
37%
FT probability
3.5+
26%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 25% | 20% | 22% |
| Draws | 40% | 0% | 20% | 25% | 0% | 11% |
| Loses | 20% | 80% | 50% | 50% | 80% | 67% |
Bafmeng UnitedLWWLLWLDLD
TonnerreLLLLWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 80% | 44% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 30% | 22% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bafmeng United | Tonnerre |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 42% | 58% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 43.2% | 57.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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