Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.89)
1.13 (league 1.51)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.4% | 26.3% | 29.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Spartak Varna II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Riltzi | 0 | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Spartak Varna II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 22 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Riltzi -26.0, Spartak Varna II -1.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Riltzi
vs
Spartak Varna II
Elo gapSpartak Varna II +22
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2809.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2809.5
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1376.1 | 1433.4 |
| Form Elo | 1362.6 | 1410.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.1 | 1457.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1401.4 | 1513.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1252.5 | 1360.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.0 | -1.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Riltzi last-5 Elo change: -26.0; Spartak Varna II last-5 Elo change: -1.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 47% |
| Attack | 13% | 48% |
| Defense | 4% | 35% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 22 | 4.4 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 25% | 8% | 17% | 38% | 15% | 27% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 12% |
| Loses | 50% | 92% | 71% | 54% | 69% | 62% |
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Spartak Varna IIWWLLLLDWLWLLWLLDLLLLLWDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 10 | 22 | 25 | 12 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 23 | 33 | 56 | 23 | 35 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 54% | 83% | 69% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 67% | 42% | 62% |
| 2.5 | 8% | 38% | 23% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 13% | 4% | 23% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 4% | 8% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-7 | 8-1 | 3-5 | 7-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Riltzi | Spartak Varna II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 13% | 88% |
| Att | 21% | 79% |
| Def | 41% | 59% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 32.7% | 67.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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