Expected Goals
2.39 (league 1.43)
0.65 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.6% | 15.7% | 8.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.7%
1 - 0
11.5%
3 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Llapi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Drita | 0 | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.5% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.7% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.9% | 7.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Drita carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 120 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Drita +25.8, Llapi -26.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Drita
vs
Llapi
Elo gapDrita +120
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo3082.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3082.4
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Drita | Llapi |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1583.8 | 1498.6 |
| Form Elo | 1601.8 | 1489.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1554.6 | 1490.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1531.9 | 1471.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1585.9 | 1512.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.8 | -26.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Drita last-5 Elo change: +25.8; Llapi last-5 Elo change: -26.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Drita | Llapi |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 27% |
| Attack | 41% | 18% |
| Defense | 82% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Drita | Llapi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 79% | 33% | 55% | 33% | 21% | 28% |
| Draws | 7% | 33% | 21% | 40% | 21% | 31% |
| Loses | 14% | 33% | 24% | 27% | 57% | 41% |
DritaLDDLWLWWWWLWWLDDDWWWWDWLWWWWL
LlapiDLDLDLWWDWWLDWLLDLDLLDWWLLWLD
League goals
| Metric | Drita | Llapi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 15 | 41 | 20 | 13 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 11 | 17 | 28 | 17 | 25 | 42 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Drita | Llapi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 69% | 62% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 17% | 31% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Drita | Llapi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Drita | Llapi |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Drita | Llapi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Drita | Llapi |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 78% | 22% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 71.3% | 28.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.47 @ Dafabet
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away6.67 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Betfair
No1.69 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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