Championship
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Gayfield Park
Expected Goals
1.68 (league 1.34)
1.44 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.6% | 23.6% | 32.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.7%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Partick | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arbroath | 0 | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Partick carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Arbroath -18.7, Partick +19.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Arbroath
vs
Partick
Elo gapPartick +53
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3158.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3158.9
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1535.6 | 1623.3 |
| Form Elo | 1526.2 | 1635.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1555.3 | 1543 |
| Attack Elo | 1530.9 | 1584.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.4 | 1595.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.7 | +19.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Arbroath last-5 Elo change: -18.7; Partick last-5 Elo change: +19.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 73% |
| Attack | 50% | 83% |
| Defense | 33% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 47% | 29% | 38% | 71% | 29% | 50% |
| Draws | 41% | 24% | 32% | 29% | 47% | 38% |
| Loses | 12% | 47% | 29% | 0% | 24% | 12% |
ArbroathDWLWWLDLDWWLWLDDWWWDLWDLWDDDDWLLLW
PartickLDWWWWWDDWWLWDWWDLDDWLWDWDDWDWWDWD
League goals
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 16 | 43 | 29 | 23 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 20 | 21 | 41 | 11 | 24 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arbroath | Partick | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 76% | 82% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 24% | 50% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-0 | — | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arbroath | Partick |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 38.0% | 62.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.76 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Bet365
Away2.10 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.74 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.91 @ Bet365
No1.92 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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