League One
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Palmerston Park
Expected Goals
2.12 (league 1.44)
1.12 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.3% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 0
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Montrose | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Queen of the South | 0 | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.3% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Queen of the South carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 90 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Queen of the South +8.4, Montrose -35.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Queen of the South
vs
Montrose
Elo gapQueen of the South +90
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3002.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3002.7
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1528.7 | 1474 |
| Form Elo | 1527 | 1457.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1535.6 | 1470.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1574.4 | 1550.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1525.3 | 1346 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.4 | -35.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Queen of the South last-5 Elo change: +8.4; Montrose last-5 Elo change: -35.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 78% | 56% |
| Defense | 44% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 47% | 29% | 38% | 47% | 18% | 32% |
| Draws | 29% | 35% | 32% | 12% | 35% | 24% |
| Loses | 24% | 35% | 29% | 41% | 47% | 44% |
Queen of the SouthWLWDWLLLWLWDWDLDWWWLWWDDLLLDWDDDWD
MontroseLLDLWWDWLLLLLDWWWLWLWDDLWDDLWDWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 23 | 52 | 25 | 21 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 32 | 31 | 63 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Queen of the South | Montrose | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 76% | 76% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 35% | 35% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 12% | 18% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 6% | 3% | 12% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Queen of the South | Montrose |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 61.7% | 38.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.53 @ Bet365
Draw4.50 @ Dafabet
Away5.91 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.60 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.38 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…