League Two
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The Croud Meadow
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 1.35)
0.94 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.9% | 34.8% | 40.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.1%
0 - 1
18.9%
1 - 0
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Fleetwood Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shrewsbury | 0 | 20.1% | 18.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 12.6% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Fleetwood Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shrewsbury +8.6, Fleetwood Town -8.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Shrewsbury
vs
Fleetwood Town
Elo gapFleetwood Town +32
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2929.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2929.9
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1431.5 | 1498.4 |
| Form Elo | 1423.7 | 1491.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1460 | 1497 |
| Attack Elo | 1385 | 1496.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1398.9 | 1514.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.6 | -8.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Shrewsbury last-5 Elo change: +8.6; Fleetwood Town last-5 Elo change: -8.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 21% | 43% |
| Defense | 79% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 41% | 18% | 30% | 36% | 32% | 34% |
| Draws | 23% | 18% | 20% | 36% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 36% | 64% | 50% | 27% | 41% | 34% |
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Fleetwood TownWWDLDWLDLWLWDWLDWLDWWLDLLLWLLDWWDWDDDLWDLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 20 | 40 | 33 | 21 | 54 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 25 | 41 | 66 | 33 | 22 | 55 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 70% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 45% | 32% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 23% | 9% | 5% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 2% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 8 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-1 | 2-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.30 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Betfair
Away2.47 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.20 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.67 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ Marathonbet
No1.91 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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