League One
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Pirelli Stadium
Expected Goals
1.15 (league 1.46)
1.05 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.9% | 29.1% | 32.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
1 - 0
12.7%
0 - 1
11.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Exeter City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Burton Albion | 0 | 11.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.7% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Burton Albion carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 62 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Burton Albion +0.6, Exeter City +13.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Burton Albion
vs
Exeter City
Elo gapBurton Albion +62
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2990.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2990.5
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1508.6 | 1481.9 |
| Form Elo | 1511.6 | 1472.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493 | 1471.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1495 | 1496.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1572 | 1435 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.6 | +13.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Burton Albion last-5 Elo change: +0.6; Exeter City last-5 Elo change: +13.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 38% | 100% |
| Defense | 63% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 41% | 18% | 30% | 36% | 18% | 27% |
| Draws | 18% | 41% | 30% | 32% | 23% | 27% |
| Loses | 41% | 41% | 41% | 32% | 59% | 45% |
Burton AlbionWLDLLLDLWDWLWDWWLLDDWLLLWLLDLDWDWLDLWLWLDDWD
Exeter CityLWLWLWLLLLWDLWDLLWLWLWWDWWDLDDDDLDLLLLLDLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 21 | 47 | 29 | 21 | 50 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 27 | 30 | 57 | 27 | 31 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Burton Albion | Exeter City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 64% | 73% | 64% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 39% | 30% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 14% | 18% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 5% | 2% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
Penalties
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 1-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Burton Albion | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 40.0% | 60.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.05 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ BetVictor
Away3.90 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.87 @ Betfair
Under 2.52.11 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.74 @ Unibet
No2.23 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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