League One
— England
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
LNER stadium
Expected Goals
2.12 (league 1.45)
0.70 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.1% | 18.7% | 11.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
13.4%
1 - 0
12.6%
3 - 0
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Wycombe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Lincoln | 0 | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.4% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Lincoln carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 210 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lincoln +22.5, Wycombe -26.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lincoln
vs
Wycombe
Elo gapLincoln +210
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo3250.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3250.4
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1712.9 | 1537.5 |
| Form Elo | 1734.3 | 1518.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1595.4 | 1500.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1721.6 | 1539 |
| Defense Elo | 1668.3 | 1592.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.5 | -26.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lincoln last-5 Elo change: +22.5; Wycombe last-5 Elo change: -26.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 27% |
| Attack | 100% | 100% |
| Defense | 50% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 22 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 44 |
| Wins | 77% | 55% | 66% | 55% | 18% | 36% |
| Draws | 18% | 27% | 23% | 14% | 41% | 27% |
| Loses | 5% | 18% | 11% | 32% | 41% | 36% |
LincolnWLWWDDDWWWLWLDLWLWWDWWWDWDWWWWDWWWWWWDWWWWDW
WycombeLLDLDLWLWLDWDWWDWDLDWLDDWWLWDWLDWWWLLWLWLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 49 | 34 | 83 | 42 | 21 | 63 |
| GF avg | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 17 | 21 | 38 | 21 | 31 | 52 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Lincoln | Wycombe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 59% | 75% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 23% | 43% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 5% | 18% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 7% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 10 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Lincoln | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 76% | 24% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 69% | 31% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 58.8% | 41.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.85 @ Dafabet
Draw3.92 @ Pinnacle
Away4.33 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.90 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.05 @ Marathonbet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.09 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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