Domagnano vs Folgore

Campionato — San-Marino

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 • Stadio di Domagnano

Not Started

Domagnano

—

Folgore

Expected Goals

1.69 (league 1.36) 1.53 (league 1.36)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
41.0%	23.2%	34.5%

best score tips

1 - 1

10.3%

2 - 1

8.7%

1 - 2

7.9%

Score & goals probability table

		Folgore
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Domagnano	0	4.0%	6.1%	4.7%	2.4%	0.9%	0.3%
	1	6.7%	10.3%	7.9%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
	2	5.7%	8.7%	6.7%	3.4%	1.3%	0.4%
	3	3.2%	4.9%	3.8%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%
	4	1.4%	2.1%	1.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
	5	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Domagnano +26.3, Folgore -0.3.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Domagnano Elo 1535.7 · +26.3

Folgore Elo 1577.4 · -0.3

Elo gapFolgore +7

Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%

Expected home share49%

Combined Elo3113.1

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3113.1

Elo home share 49%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Overall Elo	1535.7	1577.4
Form Elo	1556	1587.1
Home / Away Elo	1499.6	1543.4
Attack Elo	1617.8	1626.1
Defense Elo	1545.4	1567.3
Last 5 Elo change	+26.3	-0.3

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Domagnano last-5 Elo change: +26.3; Folgore last-5 Elo change: -0.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Played	5	5
Form	67%	47%
Attack	42%	42%
Defense	74%	74%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	8 \| 1.6	8 \| 1.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	5 \| 1	5 \| 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.00

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%

FT probability

2.5+

61%

FT probability

3.5+

44%

FT probability

BTTS

73%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Domagnano			Folgore
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	14	15	29	15	14	29
Wins	50%	47%	48%	53%	50%	52%
Draws	21%	27%	24%	33%	29%	31%
Loses	29%	27%	28%	13%	21%	17%

DomagnanoWWDDLWWWDWWWDDDLLLLLWWWLWLWDW

FolgoreWLWWWLWWDDLLDWWLWWWWDWWDDDDDW

League goals

Metric	Domagnano			Folgore
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	30	26	56	33	27	60
GF avg	2.1	1.7	1.9	2.2	1.9	2.1
GA total	16	13	29	15	15	30
GA avg	1.1	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Domagnano		Folgore
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	79%	62%	93%	62%
1.5	48%	28%	62%	38%
2.5	31%	10%	34%	3%
3.5	21%	0%	10%	0%
4.5	10%	0%	3%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Domagnano			Folgore
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	4	7	11	6	5	11
Failed to score	2	4	6	1	1	2

Penalties

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	2

Streaks

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Wins	3	4
Draws	3	5
Losses	5	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	5-0	0-6	6-1	0-4
Biggest losses	0-3	2-0	1-3	2-1
Goals For	5	6	6	4
Goals Against	3	3	3	2

Model comparison

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Form	59%	41%
Att	50%	50%
Def	50%	50%
Poisson Distribution	51%	49%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	64%	36%
Total	54.0%	46.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Domagnano vs Folgore

Metric	Domagnano	Folgore
Scored (total \| %)	5 \| 100.00%	2 \| 100.00%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	5	2