Campionato
— San-Marino
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore
Expected Goals
0.62 (league 1.36)
2.35 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | 15.8% | 73.0% |
best score tips
0 - 2
14.2%
0 - 1
12.1%
0 - 3
11.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Virtus | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Libertas | 0 | 5.2% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| 1 | 3.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Virtus carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 183 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Libertas +12.8, Virtus +1.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Libertas
vs
Virtus
Elo gapVirtus +183
Home / draw / away21% / 18% / 61%
Expected home share26%
Combined Elo3128
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3128
Elo home share
26%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1454.9 | 1673.1 |
| Form Elo | 1465.6 | 1680.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.2 | 1564.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1430.5 | 1723 |
| Defense Elo | 1335.2 | 1675.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.8 | +1.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Libertas last-5 Elo change: +12.8; Virtus last-5 Elo change: +1.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 21% | 79% |
| Defense | 63% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 15 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 20% | 31% | 87% | 57% | 72% |
| Draws | 14% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 29% | 21% |
| Loses | 43% | 40% | 41% | 0% | 14% | 7% |
LibertasDLLWDDLLDDLWLLLWWDWLWDLWWDWLL
VirtusDWWWWWWWWDLWWWDWWDWWWWDWLWDWW
League goals
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 15 | 32 | 39 | 28 | 67 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 22 | 32 | 54 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Libertas | Virtus | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 83% | 90% | 52% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 41% | 76% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 31% | 38% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 14% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 10% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 6-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 6-1 | — | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Libertas | Virtus |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 21% | 79% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 20% | 80% |
| Total | 32.0% | 68.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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