Campionato
— San-Marino
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini
Expected Goals
3.34 (league 1.36)
0.26 (league 1.36)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 80.9% | 5.7% | 1.2% |
best score tips
3 - 0
16.9%
2 - 0
15.2%
4 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Pennarossa | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tre Fiori | 0 | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.2% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 16.9% | 4.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 14.1% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.4% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Tre Fiori carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 313 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tre Fiori +21.5, Pennarossa +30.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Tre Fiori
vs
Pennarossa
Elo gapTre Fiori +313
Home / draw / away71% / 18% / 11%
Expected home share86%
Combined Elo3113.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3113.2
Elo home share
86%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1695.4 | 1417.8 |
| Form Elo | 1702.8 | 1425.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1588.8 | 1456.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1672.3 | 1396.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1726.2 | 1331.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +21.5 | +30.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tre Fiori last-5 Elo change: +21.5; Pennarossa last-5 Elo change: +30.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 67% |
| Attack | 58% | 26% |
| Defense | 95% | 68% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 86% | 67% | 76% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
| Draws | 7% | 33% | 21% | 27% | 21% | 24% |
| Loses | 7% | 0% | 3% | 47% | 50% | 48% |
Tre FioriWWWWWWDWWDDWWWWWWWWDDLWWWDWWW
PennarossaLLLWLWLWDLWWDLDLLDLDLLDLLWWWD
League goals
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 29 | 62 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 6 | 6 | 12 | 25 | 27 | 52 |
| GA avg | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 28% | 59% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 69% | 14% | 34% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 0% | 3% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 11 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tre Fiori | Pennarossa |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 86% | 14% |
| Poisson Distribution | 92% | 8% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 87% | 13% |
| Total | 79.3% | 20.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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