Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Sportanlage Hubelmatt
Expected Goals
2.43 (league 1.89)
1.43 (league 1.54)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.9% | 18.9% | 21.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.9%
1 - 1
7.4%
3 - 1
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Breitenrain | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Luzern II | 0 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Luzern II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 50 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Luzern II -4.7, Breitenrain -15.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Luzern II
vs
Breitenrain
Elo gapLuzern II +50
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2912.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2912.6
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1463.6 | 1449 |
| Form Elo | 1461.4 | 1442.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1493.9 | 1453.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1701.7 | 1490.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1298.7 | 1433.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.7 | -15.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Luzern II last-5 Elo change: -4.7; Breitenrain last-5 Elo change: -15.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 45% | 30% |
| Defense | 40% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
76%
FT probability
3.5+
54%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 14% | 29% | 40% | 7% | 24% |
| Draws | 43% | 21% | 32% | 13% | 43% | 28% |
| Loses | 14% | 64% | 39% | 47% | 50% | 48% |
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BreitenrainWLLLDWLWDLWLLLWDLLDDWLLWDLDDL
League goals
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 38 | 28 | 66 | 23 | 16 | 39 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 28 | 40 | 68 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Luzern II | Breitenrain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 89% | 79% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 64% | 75% | 41% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 43% | 10% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 25% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 4% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 8-1 | 2-6 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Luzern II | Breitenrain |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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