Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Bauvill Stadium
Expected Goals
2.79 (league 1.65)
0.73 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.6% | 12.9% | 7.1% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.5%
3 - 0
10.7%
2 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Lewes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chatham Town | 0 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.7% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Chatham Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 237 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chatham Town -9.6, Lewes -9.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Chatham Town
vs
Lewes
Elo gapChatham Town +237
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3046.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3046.6
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1624.3 | 1422.3 |
| Form Elo | 1634 | 1410.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1546.2 | 1437 |
| Attack Elo | 1704.9 | 1419.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1724.9 | 1312.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.6 | -9.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Chatham Town last-5 Elo change: -9.6; Lewes last-5 Elo change: -9.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 33% |
| Attack | 100% | 78% |
| Defense | 56% | 11% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 55% | 57% | 56% | 43% | 20% | 32% |
| Draws | 10% | 24% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 17% |
| Loses | 35% | 19% | 27% | 38% | 65% | 51% |
Chatham TownDWWWLWWWWDDLWLWWLDWWWLWWLLLDWLDWWWWWDLLWW
LewesLWWWWDLDLLLLWDWLLLDWWWLWLWLLLDLLLLWLDLWLD
League goals
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 40 | 41 | 81 | 29 | 17 | 46 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 23 | 11 | 34 | 35 | 46 | 81 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chatham Town | Lewes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 49% | 63% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 22% | 32% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 10% | 12% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 2% | 5% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 14 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-6 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-2 | 1-6 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chatham Town | Lewes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 58% | 42% |
| Att | 63% | 37% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 81% | 19% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 69.2% | 30.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.38 @ Bet365
Draw5.00 @ Betfair
Away7.80 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.50 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.69 @ Marathonbet
No2.00 @ 1xBet
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League standings
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