Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
War Memorial Athletic Ground
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.55)
0.79 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 61.2% | 22.2% | 15.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.3%
2 - 0
12.2%
1 - 1
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Royston Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Stourbridge | 0 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.3% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Stourbridge carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 182 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Stourbridge -10.8, Royston Town -20.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Stourbridge
vs
Royston Town
Elo gapStourbridge +182
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share74%
Combined Elo2838.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2838.8
Elo home share
74%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1492.8 | 1346 |
| Form Elo | 1497.8 | 1331.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484.3 | 1451.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1534.5 | 1326.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1457.7 | 1350.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.8 | -20.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Stourbridge last-5 Elo change: -10.8; Royston Town last-5 Elo change: -20.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 20% |
| Attack | 37% | 16% |
| Defense | 68% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
83%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 21 | 41 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 25% | 29% | 27% | 10% | 15% | 12% |
| Draws | 40% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 20% | 24% |
| Loses | 35% | 43% | 39% | 62% | 65% | 63% |
StourbridgeWDDLLWDLLDLLLDDLLDLLWWDDWDLLDWDWWWLWLDDLW
Royston TownLLDDLLDWDLLLLDLWLDDLLLLWDLLDLLLLLWLDLWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 28 | 57 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 30 | 38 | 68 | 43 | 38 | 81 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Stourbridge | Royston Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 83% | 59% | 95% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 44% | 22% | 66% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 34% | 5% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-3 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Stourbridge | Royston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 62% | 38% |
| Total | 68.3% | 31.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.67 @ Betano
Draw4.00 @ Betfair
Away4.72 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.53 @ Marathonbet
No2.30 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.41 @ Pinnacle
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League standings
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