Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Borough Park
Expected Goals
1.04 (league 1.45)
0.93 (league 1.16)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.2% | 31.1% | 31.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
0 - 0
14.0%
1 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Leek Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Workington | 0 | 14.0% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 13.5% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Workington +9.4, Leek Town +48.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Workington
vs
Leek Town
Elo gapLeek Town +13
Home / draw / away34% / 29% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3007.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3007.9
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.1 | 1527.8 |
| Form Elo | 1501.7 | 1551.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.2 | 1496.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1475.4 | 1475.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1473.5 | 1526 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.4 | +48.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Workington last-5 Elo change: +9.4; Leek Town last-5 Elo change: +48.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 100% |
| Attack | 73% | 91% |
| Defense | 27% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 20 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 39 |
| Wins | 32% | 20% | 26% | 45% | 37% | 41% |
| Draws | 32% | 35% | 33% | 20% | 16% | 18% |
| Loses | 37% | 45% | 41% | 35% | 47% | 41% |
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Leek TownLLWLDWWWLLLLDLWWDWLLLDLWDLWWLDLDWLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 24 | 43 | 26 | 23 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 18 | 39 | 57 | 23 | 29 | 52 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Workington | Leek Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 77% | 67% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 46% | 38% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 15% | 18% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 6-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Workington | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 43.3% | 56.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.37 @ Betano
Draw3.50 @ Dafabet
Away3.14 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ William Hill
No2.07 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.82 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.05 @ Bet365
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League standings
Loading standings…