Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The EMR Stadium
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.57)
0.89 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 46.4% | 28.2% | 25.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.5%
1 - 1
12.9%
0 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Witham Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tilbury | 0 | 11.0% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.5% | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.6% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Tilbury carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tilbury -33.3, Witham Town +5.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Tilbury
vs
Witham Town
Elo gapTilbury +31
Home / draw / away40% / 26% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3037.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3037.5
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1516.8 | 1520.7 |
| Form Elo | 1507.6 | 1537.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1538.3 | 1492.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1509.9 | 1588.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1514.5 | 1475.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -33.3 | +5.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Tilbury last-5 Elo change: -33.3; Witham Town last-5 Elo change: +5.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 22% | 61% |
| Defense | 50% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
77%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 20 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 45% | 30% | 38% | 43% | 40% | 41% |
| Draws | 35% | 20% | 28% | 38% | 10% | 24% |
| Loses | 20% | 50% | 35% | 19% | 50% | 34% |
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Witham TownWLWDLLDWWDDLWWLWDWWLWDDLLLLLWLWWDDWWLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 28 | 54 | 39 | 28 | 67 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 15 | 36 | 51 | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tilbury | Witham Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 63% | 76% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 43% | 49% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 18% | 27% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 5% | 10% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 3 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-5 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tilbury | Witham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 42.7% | 57.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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