Atherton Collieries vs Bury

Non League Div One - Northern West — England

Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • The Skuna Stadium

Not Started

home	draw	away
19.6%	23.6%	55.9%

		Bury
Atherton Collieries	0	7.1%	12.3%	10.7%	6.2%	2.7%	0.9%
1	6.5%	11.2%	9.7%	5.6%	2.4%	0.8%
2	2.9%	5.1%	4.4%	2.6%	1.1%	0.4%
3	0.9%	1.6%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.2%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
5	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Away strong edge

Bury carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 122 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atherton Collieries -16.8, Bury +34.3.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

Atherton Collieries Elo 1478.2 · -16.8

Bury Elo 1634.7 · +34.3

Elo gapBury +122

Home / draw / away27% / 18% / 55%

Expected home share33%

Combined Elo3112.9

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Away strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3112.9

Elo home share 33%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Overall Elo	1478.2	1634.7
Form Elo	1470.1	1660.6
Home / Away Elo	1511	1550.7
Attack Elo	1508.6	1700.6
Defense Elo	1460.8	1590.1
Last 5 Elo change	-16.8	+34.3

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Atherton Collieries last-5 Elo change: -16.8; Bury last-5 Elo change: +34.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Played	5	5
Form	40%	87%
Attack	32%	68%
Defense	47%	84%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	6 \| 1.2	13 \| 2.6
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	3 \| 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%

FT probability

2.5+

57%

FT probability

3.5+

41%

FT probability

BTTS

69%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Atherton Collieries			Bury
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	21	21	42	21	20	41
Wins	48%	29%	38%	71%	50%	61%
Draws	10%	24%	17%	14%	35%	24%
Loses	43%	48%	45%	14%	15%	15%

Atherton CollieriesLLLLWWWWDWWLWWLLDLLWDWLLWDLLLWWLDLWDDLLWWL

BuryWDDLWWWWWWLLDWDWLWLDDWWWWDDDWWWWWLWWWWDWW

League goals

Metric	Atherton Collieries			Bury
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	31	25	56	48	33	81
GF avg	1.5	1.2	1.3	2.3	1.7	2.0
GA total	30	37	67	17	19	36
GA avg	1.4	1.8	1.6	0.8	1.0	0.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Atherton Collieries		Bury
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	71%	79%	80%	54%
1.5	43%	55%	51%	29%
2.5	17%	17%	29%	5%
3.5	2%	7%	17%	0%
4.5	0%	2%	7%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Atherton Collieries			Bury
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	5	4	9	10	9	19
Failed to score	4	8	12	4	4	8

Penalties

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Streaks

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Wins	4	6
Draws	2	3
Losses	4	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	3-0	0-3	9-0	2-6
Biggest losses	2-5	4-0	0-2	3-0
Goals For	4	3	9	6
Goals Against	5	4	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Form	32%	68%
Att	32%	68%
Def	23%	77%
Poisson Distribution	33%	67%
H2h	50%	50%
Goals	0%	0%
Total	34.0%	66.0%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Atherton Collieries vs Bury

Metric	Atherton Collieries	Bury
Scored (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	0	0

Atherton Collieries vs Bury