Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Cockrams Ground
Expected Goals
2.59 (league 1.74)
0.84 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 70.1% | 15.2% | 9.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.8%
3 - 0
9.3%
2 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Exmouth | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Shaftesbury Town | 0 | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.8% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.3% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Shaftesbury Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 190 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Shaftesbury Town +18.4, Exmouth -40.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Shaftesbury Town
vs
Exmouth
Elo gapShaftesbury Town +190
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3074.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3074.3
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1614.4 | 1459.9 |
| Form Elo | 1631.6 | 1449.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1593.3 | 1489.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1721.5 | 1509 |
| Defense Elo | 1508.7 | 1466.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +18.4 | -40.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Shaftesbury Town last-5 Elo change: +18.4; Exmouth last-5 Elo change: -40.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 7% |
| Attack | 42% | 8% |
| Defense | 67% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 17 | 36 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| Wins | 84% | 47% | 67% | 52% | 29% | 43% |
| Draws | 5% | 12% | 8% | 13% | 18% | 15% |
| Loses | 11% | 41% | 25% | 35% | 53% | 43% |
Shaftesbury TownWWLWLWWWLLWWWWWDWWWWLDWDWLLWWWWLWLWW
ExmouthLLLDWWWWWWWLWWDDDDLWLLLWLWLLWLWWLWWLLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 48 | 37 | 85 | 47 | 17 | 64 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 21 | 32 | 53 | 33 | 30 | 63 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 89% | 72% | 73% | 83% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 44% | 53% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 6% | 13% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 7 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 2-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Shaftesbury Town | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 90% | 10% |
| Att | 83% | 17% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 66.0% | 34.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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