Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Steel Park
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.44)
2.27 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.6% | 19.9% | 54.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
8.1%
1 - 3
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Sutton Coldfield Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Corby Town | 0 | 2.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Corby Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Corby Town -3.5, Sutton Coldfield Town +18.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Corby Town
vs
Sutton Coldfield Town
Elo gapCorby Town +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2965.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2965.7
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474.6 | 1491.1 |
| Form Elo | 1457.1 | 1507.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1462.4 | 1501.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1515.3 | 1536.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1444.1 | 1441.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.5 | +18.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Corby Town last-5 Elo change: -3.5; Sutton Coldfield Town last-5 Elo change: +18.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 38% | 69% |
| Defense | 62% | 62% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 20 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| Wins | 29% | 45% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 37% |
| Draws | 18% | 30% | 24% | 14% | 30% | 22% |
| Loses | 53% | 25% | 38% | 48% | 35% | 41% |
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League goals
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 28 | 45 | 30 | 38 | 68 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 28 | 24 | 52 | 31 | 39 | 70 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 73% | 80% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 32% | 54% | 51% |
| 2.5 | 5% | 16% | 22% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 7% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 5% | 2% | 5% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-7 | 6-1 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Corby Town | Sutton Coldfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 92% | 8% |
| Total | 52.4% | 47.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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