Veikkausliiga
— Finland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Veritas Stadion
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.63)
0.31 (league 1.59)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.0% | 19.3% | 5.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.3%
2 - 0
19.6%
3 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Mariehamn | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Inter Turku | 0 | 11.5% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.3% | 6.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Inter Turku carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 201 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Inter Turku +13.6, Mariehamn -9.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Inter Turku
vs
Mariehamn
Elo gapInter Turku +201
Home / draw / away62% / 18% / 20%
Expected home share76%
Combined Elo3198
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3198
Elo home share
76%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1682.1 | 1515.9 |
| Form Elo | 1709.5 | 1502.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1562.8 | 1485.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1644.3 | 1529.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1681.4 | 1460.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.6 | -9.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Inter Turku last-5 Elo change: +13.6; Mariehamn last-5 Elo change: -9.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 78% | 22% |
| Attack | 29% | 21% |
| Defense | 93% | 57% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.3 | 6 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 50% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
Inter TurkuDWW
MariehamnDLD
League goals
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Inter Turku | Mariehamn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 33% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 0% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 0-2 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Inter Turku | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 78% | 22% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 86% | 14% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 76.2% | 23.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.37 @ Betano
Draw5.36 @ Pinnacle
Away8.90 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.67 @ Betano
Under 2.52.30 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.95 @ Bet365
No1.85 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
Loading standings…