Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Sirvintu stadionas
Expected Goals
0.33 (league 1.50)
0.66 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.3% | 45.8% | 37.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
37.2%
0 - 1
24.4%
1 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Tauras | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| BFA | 0 | 37.2% | 24.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.4% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Tauras carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: BFA -9.5, Tauras -8.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
BFA
vs
Tauras
Elo gapTauras +28
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3153.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3153.9
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | BFA | Tauras |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1545.3 | 1608.6 |
| Form Elo | 1543.3 | 1597.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.4 | 1570.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1519.1 | 1629.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1536.5 | 1617 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.5 | -8.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. BFA last-5 Elo change: -9.5; Tauras last-5 Elo change: -8.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | BFA | Tauras |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 50% | 70% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
49%
FT probability
2.5+
35%
FT probability
3.5+
25%
FT probability
BTTS
55%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | BFA | Tauras | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 50% | 33% | 40% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Draws | 50% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 67% | 40% | 33% | 50% | 40% |
BFALWLDW
TaurasWLWWL
League goals
| Metric | BFA | Tauras | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | BFA | Tauras | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 60% | 80% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 20% | 20% | 60% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | BFA | Tauras | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | BFA | Tauras |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | BFA | Tauras |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | BFA | Tauras |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 36% | 64% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 41.6% | 58.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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