Liga III - Play-offs — Romania
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Jiul Petroşani

—

Academica Balș

Expected Goals
1.09 (league 1.83) 0.57 (league 1.22)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.0% 32.7% 19.2%
best score tips
1 - 0
20.6%
0 - 0
18.9%
1 - 1
11.8%
Score & goals probability table
Academica Balș
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jiul Petroşani 0 19.1% 10.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 20.8% 11.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 11.3% 6.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.1% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home lean

Jiul Petroşani carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Jiul Petroşani +3.8, Academica Balș -38.5.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Jiul Petroşani Elo 1546.9 · +3.8
vs
Academica Balș Elo 1547.6 · -38.5
Elo gapJiul Petroşani +34
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3094.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3094.5
Elo home share 55%
Match tone Strong Watch
Metric Jiul Petroşani Academica Balș
Overall Elo1546.91547.6
Form Elo1544.41491.8
Home / Away Elo1518.51526.3
Attack Elo1569.81521.1
Defense Elo1589.61537.8
Last 5 Elo change+3.8-38.5

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Jiul Petroşani last-5 Elo change: +3.8; Academica Balș last-5 Elo change: -38.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
Played33
Form44%0%
Attack12%12%
Defense88%59%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.72 | 0.7
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.77 | 2.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

65%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Jiul Petroşani Academica Balș
HATHAT
Played123213
Wins0%50%33%0%0%0%
Draws100%0%33%0%0%0%
Loses0%50%33%100%100%100%
Jiul PetroşaniWDL
Academica BalșLLL

League goals

Metric Jiul Petroşani Academica Balș
HATHAT
GF total112202
GF avg1.00.50.71.00.00.7
GA total112527
GA avg1.00.50.72.52.02.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%67%33%100%
1.50%0%33%67%
2.50%0%0%33%
3.50%0%0%33%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
HATHAT
Clean sheets011000
Failed to score011112

Penalties

MetricJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
Wins10
Draws10
Losses03

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-1——
Biggest losses—1-02-42-0
Goals For1120
Goals Against1142

Model comparison

MetricJiul PetroşaniAcademica Balș
Form100%0%
Att50%50%
Def78%22%
Poisson Distribution100%0%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total64.0%36.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Jiul Petroşani vs Academica Balș