Premiership
— Scotland
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
The SMISA Stadium
Expected Goals
0.78 (league 1.61)
0.65 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.1% | 37.6% | 27.2% |
best score tips
0 - 0
23.9%
1 - 0
18.7%
0 - 1
15.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Livingston | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| ST Mirren | 0 | 23.9% | 15.5% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
ST Mirren carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 110 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: ST Mirren +2.0, Livingston -5.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
ST Mirren
vs
Livingston
Elo gapST Mirren +110
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2925.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2925.8
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1500.5 | 1425.3 |
| Form Elo | 1493.7 | 1418.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1509.9 | 1480.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1510.7 | 1527.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1472 | 1447.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.0 | -5.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. ST Mirren last-5 Elo change: +2.0; Livingston last-5 Elo change: -5.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 22% | 22% |
| Defense | 78% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 17 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 33 |
| Wins | 31% | 12% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 3% |
| Draws | 31% | 24% | 27% | 44% | 35% | 39% |
| Loses | 38% | 65% | 52% | 50% | 65% | 58% |
ST MirrenLDDDWWLLLDLLLDWWDLLLLDDWLLLDLLWWL
LivingstonDWLLDLLDLLDDLLLDLLLLDDLLLLDDDDLDL
League goals
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 14 | 35 |
| GF avg | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 16 | 32 | 48 | 30 | 36 | 66 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | ST Mirren | Livingston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 76% | 70% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 21% | 42% | 33% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 18% | 3% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 9 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 3-1 | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | ST Mirren | Livingston |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 54% | 46% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 58.5% | 41.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.71 @ Dafabet
Draw4.10 @ Betfair
Away5.04 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.91 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.10 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.82 @ Betano
No2.06 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
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