Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:30 •
De Kuip
Expected Goals
1.97 (league 1.75)
1.36 (league 1.34)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.3% | 21.8% | 26.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.6%
2 - 1
9.5%
1 - 0
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Groningen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Feyenoord | 0 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Feyenoord carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 88 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Feyenoord +8.9, Groningen +50.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Feyenoord
vs
Groningen
Elo gapFeyenoord +88
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3073.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3073.9
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1563.3 | 1510.6 |
| Form Elo | 1572.1 | 1521.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1544.6 | 1482.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1676.1 | 1530 |
| Defense Elo | 1511 | 1520.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.9 | +50.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Feyenoord last-5 Elo change: +8.9; Groningen last-5 Elo change: +50.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 73% |
| Attack | 50% | 64% |
| Defense | 57% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 67% | 40% | 53% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Draws | 13% | 33% | 23% | 27% | 13% | 20% |
| Loses | 20% | 27% | 23% | 33% | 47% | 40% |
FeyenoordWWWWWDWWWLWLLWWLDDLWLWWWLDWDDD
GroningenLWLWWWLWLWDLDLWWDDWLLLLLLWDWWD
League goals
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 27 | 62 | 23 | 19 | 42 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 21 | 20 | 41 | 14 | 23 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Feyenoord | Groningen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 70% | 77% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% | 47% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 13% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 0-7 | 4-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Feyenoord | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 39% | 61% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 55.5% | 44.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.68 @ 1xBet
Draw4.50 @ Dafabet
Away4.90 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.60 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.55 @ Unibet
No2.40 @ BetVictor
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League standings
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