Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 01:07 •
Estadio Akron
Expected Goals
2.87 (league 1.52)
1.05 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 67.6% | 14.3% | 10.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
3 - 1
8.2%
2 - 0
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Club Tijuana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guadalajara Chivas | 0 | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Guadalajara Chivas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 120 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Guadalajara Chivas +20.7, Club Tijuana +31.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Club Tijuana
Elo gapGuadalajara Chivas +120
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo3128.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3128.2
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1606.8 | 1521.4 |
| Form Elo | 1626.9 | 1533.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1546 | 1466.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1604.4 | 1552.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1580.6 | 1468.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.7 | +31.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Guadalajara Chivas last-5 Elo change: +20.7; Club Tijuana last-5 Elo change: +31.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 85% | 54% |
| Defense | 38% | 54% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| Wins | 65% | 50% | 57% | 47% | 24% | 36% |
| Draws | 18% | 11% | 14% | 47% | 24% | 36% |
| Loses | 18% | 39% | 29% | 5% | 53% | 28% |
Guadalajara ChivasLWLLDLWDLWWWWLWWWDLWWWWWWLLWWWWDLWD
Club TijuanaWLDDWDWDWLWDLDLLWWWLDWDDDLDDLLWLWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 25 | 64 | 33 | 21 | 54 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 17 | 25 | 42 | 13 | 33 | 46 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 66% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 37% | 44% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 14% | 22% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 3% | 3% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 9 | 90.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 10.00% |
| Total | 5 | 10 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guadalajara Chivas | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 43% | 57% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 55.3% | 44.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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