Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 05:00 •
Sagamihara Gion Stadium
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.42)
0.42 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.5% | 32.6% | 13.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.9%
0 - 0
21.2%
2 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Cerezo Osaka W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Nojima Stella W | 0 | 21.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.5% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Nojima Stella W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 55 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Nojima Stella W +10.3, Cerezo Osaka W -18.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Nojima Stella W
vs
Cerezo Osaka W
Elo gapNojima Stella W +55
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2881.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2881.9
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1450.9 | 1431 |
| Form Elo | 1448.7 | 1426.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1469.8 | 1448.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1476.8 | 1444.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1414 | 1455.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +10.3 | -18.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Nojima Stella W last-5 Elo change: +10.3; Cerezo Osaka W last-5 Elo change: -18.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 13% |
| Attack | 57% | 36% |
| Defense | 57% | 36% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 22% | 33% | 28% | 44% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 11% | 22% | 17% | 22% | 22% | 22% |
| Loses | 67% | 44% | 56% | 33% | 78% | 56% |
Nojima Stella WLLLWLWLDWLLDLWDLLW
Cerezo Osaka WDDWLLLLLWWLLWDLLDL
League goals
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 17 | 32 | 12 | 18 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 56% | 67% | 61% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 61% | 33% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 6% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Nojima Stella W | Cerezo Osaka W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 78% | 22% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 35% | 65% |
| Total | 55.7% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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