Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 05:00 •
Kumagaya Athletic Stadium
Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.43)
1.77 (league 1.18)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.2% | 22.1% | 65.8% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.3%
0 - 2
15.2%
0 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Albirex Niigata W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Elfen Saitama W | 0 | 9.8% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Albirex Niigata W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 72 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Elfen Saitama W -0.5, Albirex Niigata W +12.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Elfen Saitama W
vs
Albirex Niigata W
Elo gapAlbirex Niigata W +72
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo2957.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2957.3
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1425 | 1532.3 |
| Form Elo | 1416.6 | 1531 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1461.4 | 1553.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1444 | 1505.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1446.1 | 1514.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.5 | +12.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Elfen Saitama W last-5 Elo change: -0.5; Albirex Niigata W last-5 Elo change: +12.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 53% |
| Attack | 56% | 89% |
| Defense | 67% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| Wins | 11% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 56% | 44% |
| Draws | 22% | 11% | 17% | 22% | 11% | 17% |
| Loses | 67% | 67% | 67% | 44% | 33% | 39% |
Elfen Saitama WDDLLLLDLLLWLLLWLLW
Albirex Niigata WWLWLWDWLLWLLWLWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 17 | 14 | 31 | 15 | 7 | 22 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 50% | 72% | 67% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 50% | 28% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 33% | 17% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 11% | 0% | 11% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Elfen Saitama W | Albirex Niigata W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 38% | 62% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 14% | 86% |
| Total | 37.4% | 62.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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