Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4
Expected Goals
0.68 (league 1.39)
0.95 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 25.3% | 34.4% | 40.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
19.5%
0 - 1
18.5%
1 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Deportivo Alavés II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tudelano | 0 | 19.5% | 18.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.3% | 12.7% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Deportivo Alavés II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tudelano -5.4, Deportivo Alavés II -3.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Tudelano
vs
Deportivo Alavés II
Elo gapDeportivo Alavés II +25
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3186
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3186
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1562.8 | 1623.2 |
| Form Elo | 1565.3 | 1632.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.7 | 1577.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1615.1 | 1510.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.5 | 1687 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -5.4 | -3.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Tudelano last-5 Elo change: -5.4; Deportivo Alavés II last-5 Elo change: -3.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 53% |
| Attack | 67% | 58% |
| Defense | 50% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 38% | 47% | 53% | 47% | 50% |
| Draws | 25% | 31% | 28% | 24% | 40% | 31% |
| Loses | 19% | 31% | 25% | 24% | 13% | 19% |
TudelanoWDWLWWDWWLWLWDLWDLWWLDWDWLDDLWWD
Deportivo Alavés IIWLLWDWLWLWDDDWLWWDWWDWDDWWWDDLWW
League goals
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 24 | 54 | 25 | 14 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 17 | 21 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 75% | 72% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 28% | 41% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 13% | 9% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tudelano | Deportivo Alavés II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 45.0% | 55.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.28 @ Unibet
Draw3.25 @ Dafabet
Away3.10 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.86 @ Marathonbet
No1.97 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.21 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.72 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…