Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:15 •
SPA Sebaldsbrück Platz 1
Expected Goals
1.36 (league 2.38)
3.40 (league 1.90)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | 12.5% | 63.3% |
best score tips
1 - 3
7.6%
1 - 2
6.7%
1 - 4
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
| OSC Bremerhaven | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sebaldsbrück | 0 | 0.9% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| 1 | 1.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.4% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
OSC Bremerhaven carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 137 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sebaldsbrück -12.9, OSC Bremerhaven -3.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sebaldsbrück
vs
OSC Bremerhaven
Elo gapOSC Bremerhaven +137
Home / draw / away25% / 18% / 57%
Expected home share31%
Combined Elo2961.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.1
Elo home share
31%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1394.6 | 1566.5 |
| Form Elo | 1369.9 | 1572.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1473.8 | 1506.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1461.6 | 1681.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1224.8 | 1475.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.9 | -3.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sebaldsbrück last-5 Elo change: -12.9; OSC Bremerhaven last-5 Elo change: -3.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 21% | 79% |
| Defense | 21% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 19 | 3.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 19 | 3.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
85%
FT probability
3.5+
63%
FT probability
BTTS
86%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 11 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 31% | 0% | 17% | 69% | 50% | 60% |
| Draws | 15% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 17% | 16% |
| Loses | 54% | 82% | 67% | 15% | 33% | 24% |
SebaldsbrückLLLLLWDWDDDLWLLLLLLLLWLL
OSC BremerhavenWWWWWLWDDWLWDLWWWLWLWLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 10 | 35 | 44 | 27 | 71 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 36 | 41 | 77 | 18 | 20 | 38 |
| GA avg | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 96% | 92% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 79% | 72% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 58% | 48% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 38% | 28% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 21% | 24% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 8 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | — | 6-0 | 2-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-7 | 7-1 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sebaldsbrück | OSC Bremerhaven |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 21% | 79% |
| Def | 34% | 66% |
| Poisson Distribution | 28% | 72% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 26.5% | 73.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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