Meistriliiga
— Estonia
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:30 •
Hiiu Stadium
Expected Goals
5.06 (league 1.80)
0.46 (league 1.38)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 57.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
best score tips
5 - 0
11.0%
4 - 0
10.9%
3 - 0
8.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Vaprus | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kalju Nomme | 0 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 10.9% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 11.0% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Kalju Nomme carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 214 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kalju Nomme +13.2, Vaprus -17.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Kalju Nomme
vs
Vaprus
Elo gapKalju Nomme +214
Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%
Expected home share77%
Combined Elo3196.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3196.7
Elo home share
77%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1687.7 | 1509 |
| Form Elo | 1707.2 | 1496.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1556.6 | 1517 |
| Attack Elo | 1785.3 | 1754.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1744 | 1494.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.2 | -17.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Kalju Nomme last-5 Elo change: +13.2; Vaprus last-5 Elo change: -17.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 55% | 9% |
| Defense | 82% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
68%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Wins | 75% | 75% | 75% | 33% | 20% | 25% |
| Draws | 25% | 0% | 13% | 33% | 0% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 33% | 80% | 63% |
Kalju NommeWWWWWDLW
VaprusWLLLLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 4 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GF avg | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 50% | 63% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 13% | 75% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-1 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | — | 1-0 | 0-2 | 7-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kalju Nomme | Vaprus |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 86% | 14% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 89% | 11% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 74.0% | 26.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.22 @ William Hill
Draw6.36 @ Pinnacle
Away12.00 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ Bet365
No1.90 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.70 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…