Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Tamaz Stepania Stadium
Expected Goals
1.96 (league 1.38)
0.23 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.1% | 16.9% | 3.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
22.0%
2 - 0
21.5%
3 - 0
14.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Aragvi Dusheti | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sioni | 0 | 11.2% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 22.0% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 21.5% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.0% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Aragvi Dusheti carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sioni -20.6, Aragvi Dusheti -36.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Sioni
vs
Aragvi Dusheti
Elo gapAragvi Dusheti +40
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3087.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3087.6
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1506.2 | 1581.4 |
| Form Elo | 1495.7 | 1562.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.6 | 1536 |
| Attack Elo | 1558 | 1704.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.6 | 1543.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.6 | -36.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Sioni last-5 Elo change: -20.6; Aragvi Dusheti last-5 Elo change: -36.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 54% | 31% |
| Defense | 62% | 38% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
63%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 25% | 75% | 0% | 38% |
| Draws | 25% | 50% | 38% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Loses | 25% | 50% | 38% | 25% | 75% | 50% |
SioniDDDWLWLL
Aragvi DushetiWLWLLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 7 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 63% | 63% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 38% | 25% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 2-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sioni | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 70.3% | 29.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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