Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:30 •
Senger Arena
Expected Goals
2.72 (league 1.69)
1.04 (league 1.44)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.9% | 15.3% | 11.9% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.0%
2 - 0
8.6%
3 - 1
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Rot Weiss Ahlen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Gievenbeck | 0 | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.0% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Gievenbeck carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 137 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Gievenbeck -17.2, Rot Weiss Ahlen +4.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Gievenbeck
vs
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Elo gapGievenbeck +137
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2858.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2858.7
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.2 | 1378.5 |
| Form Elo | 1476 | 1378.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479 | 1430.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1475.5 | 1348.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1511.4 | 1321.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.2 | +4.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Gievenbeck last-5 Elo change: -17.2; Rot Weiss Ahlen last-5 Elo change: +4.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Attack | 55% | 36% |
| Defense | 55% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| Wins | 40% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 8% | 25% |
| Draws | 20% | 19% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 18% |
| Loses | 40% | 44% | 42% | 47% | 69% | 57% |
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Rot Weiss AhlenLWLDWLLLLLDLDLLDLWLDLWLWWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 26 | 51 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 23 | 25 | 48 | 26 | 35 | 61 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 94% | 68% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 45% | 29% | 61% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 16% | 4% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-6 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Gievenbeck | Rot Weiss Ahlen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 48.7% | 51.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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