Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Lupo Stadio
Expected Goals
2.90 (league 1.67)
0.82 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.2% | 12.7% | 7.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.1%
3 - 0
9.8%
2 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Lupo-Martini | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Wilhelmshaven | 0 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Wilhelmshaven carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 107 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Lupo-Martini -17.2, Wilhelmshaven -9.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Lupo-Martini
vs
Wilhelmshaven
Elo gapWilhelmshaven +107
Home / draw / away29% / 18% / 53%
Expected home share35%
Combined Elo2935.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2935.9
Elo home share
35%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Lupo-Martini | Wilhelmshaven |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1397.2 | 1538.7 |
| Form Elo | 1384.5 | 1515.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1460.5 | 1525.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1407.3 | 1562.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1369.8 | 1510 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.2 | -9.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Lupo-Martini last-5 Elo change: -17.2; Wilhelmshaven last-5 Elo change: -9.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 35% | 35% |
| Defense | 71% | 12% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
92%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 11 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 46% | 45% | 46% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Draws | 23% | 18% | 21% | 31% | 15% | 23% |
| Loses | 31% | 36% | 33% | 62% | 77% | 69% |
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Lupo-MartiniLLLDLLLLLWDLLDLLLDDDLLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 14 | 37 | 11 | 14 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 14 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 35 | 63 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 67% | 58% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 54% | 33% | 23% | 73% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 8% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 13% | 4% | 27% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 5-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Wilhelmshaven | Lupo-Martini |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 75% | 25% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 67% | 33% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 67.5% | 32.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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