Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Heinz-Dettmer-Stadion
Expected Goals
0.68 (league 1.77)
2.98 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 11.1% | 75.0% |
best score tips
0 - 2
11.4%
0 - 3
11.3%
0 - 4
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| SV Meppen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| BW Lohne | 0 | 2.6% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.4% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
SV Meppen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 239 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: BW Lohne -20.6, SV Meppen +38.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
BW Lohne
vs
SV Meppen
Elo gapSV Meppen +239
Home / draw / away16% / 18% / 66%
Expected home share20%
Combined Elo3128.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3128.7
Elo home share
20%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1427.4 | 1701.3 |
| Form Elo | 1412.8 | 1733.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1455.2 | 1599.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1455.6 | 1906.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1397.4 | 1645.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.6 | +38.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. BW Lohne last-5 Elo change: -20.6; SV Meppen last-5 Elo change: +38.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 100% |
| Attack | 24% | 94% |
| Defense | 47% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 16 | 3.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 20% | 13% | 17% | 80% | 73% | 77% |
| Draws | 27% | 20% | 23% | 13% | 20% | 17% |
| Loses | 53% | 67% | 60% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
BW LohneLLWLLWWLLLLLDLDLWWLLLDDDLDLLDL
SV MeppenWWDLWDWWWWWWLWWWDDWWWDWWWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 16 | 32 | 47 | 44 | 91 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| GA total | 26 | 37 | 63 | 13 | 16 | 29 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | BW Lohne | SV Meppen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 63% | 93% | 97% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 57% | 83% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 33% | 53% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 17% | 40% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 20% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 66.67% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 33.33% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-3 | 6-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | BW Lohne | SV Meppen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 12% | 88% |
| Att | 20% | 80% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 17% | 83% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 18.2% | 81.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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