FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva

Meistriliiga — Estonia

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 • A. Le Coq Arena

Not Started

home	draw	away
70.6%	2.8%	0.6%

		Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn	0	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	4.4%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	9.5%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	13.5%	3.9%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	14.5%	4.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	12.4%	3.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Home strong edge

FC Levadia Tallinn carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 207 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Levadia Tallinn +29.6, Trans Narva -23.8.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone

FC Levadia Tallinn Elo 1659.3 · +29.6

Trans Narva Elo 1487.5 · -23.8

Elo gapFC Levadia Tallinn +207

Home / draw / away63% / 18% / 19%

Expected home share77%

Combined Elo3146.8

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Home strong edge

Confidence band Strong confidence

Upset risk Low

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3146.8

Elo home share 77%

Match tone Heavy Favorite

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Overall Elo	1659.3	1487.5
Form Elo	1685.3	1468.2
Home / Away Elo	1574.5	1504.6
Attack Elo	1793.2	1610.8
Defense Elo	1670.4	1497.6
Last 5 Elo change	+29.6	-23.8

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. FC Levadia Tallinn last-5 Elo change: +29.6; Trans Narva last-5 Elo change: -23.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Played	5	5
Form	73%	20%
Attack	45%	27%
Defense	82%	32%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	10 \| 2	6 \| 1.2
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	4 \| 0.8	15 \| 3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

68%

FT probability

3.5+

48%

FT probability

BTTS

78%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-6

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn			Trans Narva
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	5	3	8	4	4	8
Wins	60%	67%	63%	50%	0%	25%
Draws	40%	33%	38%	0%	0%	0%
Loses	0%	0%	0%	50%	100%	75%

FC Levadia TallinnWWDDWDWW

Trans NarvaLLWLWLLL

League goals

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn			Trans Narva
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	11	6	17	7	2	9
GF avg	2.2	2.0	2.1	1.8	0.5	1.1
GA total	4	3	7	5	14	19
GA avg	0.8	1.0	0.9	1.3	3.5	2.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	FC Levadia Tallinn		Trans Narva
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	100%	75%	75%	88%
1.5	75%	13%	25%	63%
2.5	25%	0%	13%	25%
3.5	13%	0%	0%	25%
4.5	0%	0%	0%	25%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn			Trans Narva
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	2	0	2	1	0	1
Failed to score	0	0	0	0	2	2

Penalties

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0

Streaks

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Wins	2	1
Draws	2	0
Losses	0	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	4-0	1-3	3-0	—
Biggest losses	—	—	1-2	6-0
Goals For	4	3	3	1
Goals Against	2	1	2	6

Model comparison

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Form	79%	21%
Att	63%	38%
Def	79%	21%
Poisson Distribution	92%	8%
H2h	93%	7%
Goals	83%	17%
Total	81.5%	18.7%

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.36 @ Unibet

Draw4.90 @ 1xBet

Away7.60 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Unibet

Under 2.52.38 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.68 @ Unibet

No1.98 @ Unibet

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League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Venue page • FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva

Metric	FC Levadia Tallinn	Trans Narva
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva