Expected Goals
1.37 (league 1.22)
2.32 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6% | 19.5% | 55.5% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
7.9%
1 - 3
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Paredes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Sanjoanense | 0 | 2.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 2.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Paredes carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 85 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Sanjoanense +11.8, Paredes -22.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Sanjoanense
vs
Paredes
Elo gapParedes +85
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3004.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3004.8
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1442.2 | 1562.6 |
| Form Elo | 1437.7 | 1555.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1462.1 | 1526.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1506.4 | 1551.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1396.6 | 1623.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.8 | -22.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Sanjoanense last-5 Elo change: +11.8; Paredes last-5 Elo change: -22.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 47% | 33% |
| Defense | 53% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
54%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-5
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 26 |
| Wins | 0% | 23% | 12% | 38% | 31% | 35% |
| Draws | 62% | 23% | 42% | 62% | 23% | 42% |
| Loses | 38% | 54% | 46% | 0% | 46% | 23% |
SanjoanenseWDDDDDWDLDLLLLLLLLDLLDDDLW
ParedesLDDDDDWLDWLDDWWWDWWWLDLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 13 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 26 | 20 | 46 | 4 | 15 | 19 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Sanjoanense | Paredes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 85% | 58% | 54% |
| 1.5 | 46% | 62% | 42% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 27% | 19% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 3-0 | — | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Sanjoanense | Paredes |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 39.8% | 60.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.01 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.39 @ Pinnacle
Away2.02 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.85 @ William Hill
No1.90 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.10 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
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