Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:30 •
Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I
Expected Goals
1.62 (league 1.30)
1.56 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% | 23.5% | 36.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
8.5%
1 - 2
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Barco | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Coruña | 0 | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Coruña carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 36 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Coruña +16.9, Barco -7.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Coruña
vs
Barco
Elo gapCoruña +36
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3024.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3024.3
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Coruña | Barco |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512.8 | 1511.5 |
| Form Elo | 1514.3 | 1517.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.5 | 1510.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1529.4 | 1468.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1505.6 | 1503.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.9 | -7.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Coruña last-5 Elo change: +16.9; Barco last-5 Elo change: -7.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Coruña | Barco |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 53% | 35% |
| Defense | 59% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Coruña | Barco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 31% | 35% | 38% | 47% | 42% |
| Draws | 20% | 50% | 35% | 25% | 13% | 19% |
| Loses | 40% | 19% | 29% | 38% | 40% | 39% |
CoruñaWWDLDDLWLDDWWLWLDDWDDLDWLLWWWLD
BarcoLLLWWLLDDWDDLLLLDWWWWWLWWWWDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Coruña | Barco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 21 | 43 | 15 | 18 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 21 | 17 | 38 | 15 | 21 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Coruña | Barco | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 77% | 68% | 65% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 29% | 26% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Coruña | Barco | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Coruña | Barco |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Coruña | Barco |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-2 | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Coruña | Barco |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 56.3% | 43.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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