Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 09:30 •
Estadio Municipal de Los Prados
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.40)
1.22 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.0% | 29.4% | 44.4% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.2%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Alcorcón II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AD Parla | 0 | 12.4% | 15.2% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 13.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Alcorcón II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 49 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AD Parla -1.4, Alcorcón II +38.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
AD Parla
vs
Alcorcón II
Elo gapAlcorcón II +49
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo2941.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2941.2
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1428.5 | 1512.7 |
| Form Elo | 1413.8 | 1535.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1455.7 | 1482.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.2 | 1476.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1411.2 | 1558.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.4 | +38.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. AD Parla last-5 Elo change: -1.4; Alcorcón II last-5 Elo change: +38.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 73% |
| Attack | 56% | 44% |
| Defense | 33% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
68%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 19% | 23% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| Draws | 20% | 19% | 19% | 50% | 13% | 32% |
| Loses | 53% | 63% | 58% | 19% | 53% | 35% |
AD ParlaLDDWWLLLDWLWLLLLLWLDLLWLLLWDLLD
Alcorcón IIDDLLLDLDLWWWLWWLLLLWDDLDWDWDWDW
League goals
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 12 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 26 | 30 | 56 | 14 | 17 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AD Parla | Alcorcón II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 81% | 61% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 58% | 26% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 32% | 10% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 50.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 50.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-3 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AD Parla | Alcorcón II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 20% | 80% |
| Poisson Distribution | 42% | 58% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 30% | 70% |
| Total | 32.3% | 67.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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