Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 09:30 •
Estadio Boetticher
Expected Goals
0.63 (league 1.40)
1.12 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5% | 32.0% | 47.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.5%
0 - 0
17.4%
1 - 1
12.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Las Rozas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Villaverde-Boetticher | 0 | 17.4% | 19.5% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Villaverde-Boetticher +5.9, Las Rozas -41.3.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Villaverde-Boetticher
vs
Las Rozas
Elo gapVillaverde-Boetticher +17
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo3038.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3038.5
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1510.4 | 1528.1 |
| Form Elo | 1503.2 | 1511.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1484 | 1518.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.9 | 1566.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1559.3 | 1510.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +5.9 | -41.3 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Villaverde-Boetticher last-5 Elo change: +5.9; Las Rozas last-5 Elo change: -41.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 20% |
| Attack | 28% | 39% |
| Defense | 72% | 39% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 20% | 38% | 29% | 56% | 40% | 48% |
| Draws | 47% | 38% | 42% | 19% | 33% | 26% |
| Loses | 33% | 25% | 29% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
Villaverde-BoetticherDLWWWWDDLWLLDDWLDLDWDDLDLDWWDDL
Las RozasWWLWWDWWWWWDWDLLDWWLDWDDWDLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 16 | 28 | 31 | 21 | 52 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 15 | 20 | 35 | 20 | 17 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 55% | 87% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 29% | 48% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 19% | 13% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 6% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 9-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Villaverde-Boetticher | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73% | 27% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 69% | 31% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 61.2% | 38.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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