Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.58 (league 1.30)
0.17 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8% | 52.2% | 9.0% |
best score tips
0 - 0
47.5%
1 - 0
27.5%
2 - 0
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Ahal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Şagadam | 0 | 47.5% | 7.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 27.5% | 4.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Ahal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 94 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Şagadam +25.4, Ahal +10.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Şagadam
vs
Ahal
Elo gapAhal +94
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo3086
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3086
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1478.6 | 1607.4 |
| Form Elo | 1507 | 1621.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1492.4 | 1562.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1410.8 | 1569.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1544.2 | 1614.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.4 | +10.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Şagadam last-5 Elo change: +25.4; Ahal last-5 Elo change: +10.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 4 | 5 |
| Form | 75% | 40% |
| Attack | 80% | 10% |
| Defense | 60% | 90% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
0.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
39%
FT probability
2.5+
27%
FT probability
3.5+
19%
FT probability
BTTS
39%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Wins | 100% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 0% | 20% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Loses | 0% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 50% | 20% |
ŞagadamWWWL
AhalDDWLD
League goals
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| GA total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Şagadam | Ahal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 2 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 1-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-2 | — | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Şagadam | Ahal |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 89% | 11% |
| Def | 20% | 80% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 42.2% | 57.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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