Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:15 •
Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers
Expected Goals
1.82 (league 1.40)
0.89 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 58.2% | 22.7% | 18.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
12.1%
2 - 0
11.0%
1 - 1
10.8%
Score & goals probability table
| L'Escala | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vilanova | 0 | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 11.0% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Vilanova carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vilanova -18.8, L'Escala -21.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Vilanova
vs
L'Escala
Elo gapVilanova +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2977.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2977.8
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1509.8 | 1468 |
| Form Elo | 1500.7 | 1450.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1542 | 1460.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1442.4 | 1508.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1587.4 | 1445 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | -21.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Vilanova last-5 Elo change: -18.8; L'Escala last-5 Elo change: -21.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 33% |
| Attack | 36% | 64% |
| Defense | 45% | 18% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 67% | 13% | 39% | 44% | 27% | 35% |
| Draws | 20% | 50% | 35% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 13% | 38% | 26% | 19% | 47% | 32% |
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L'EscalaWWLDWWDWLDWWDLDLDWLLWWDDLLDDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 17 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 13 | 12 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vilanova | L'Escala | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 65% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 10% | 42% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 6% | 23% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-0 | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vilanova | L'Escala |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 68% | 32% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 52.8% | 47.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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