Recoleta vs Antofagasta

Primera B — Chile

Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 • Venue TBA

Not Started

Recoleta

—

Antofagasta

Expected Goals

2.51 (league 1.29) 4.01 (league 0.90)

1x2 probabilities

home	draw	away
17.8%	13.2%	44.0%

best score tips

2 - 4

5.0%

2 - 3

5.0%

3 - 4

4.2%

Score & goals probability table

		Antofagasta
		0	1	2	3	4	5
Recoleta	0	0.1%	0.6%	1.2%	1.6%	1.6%	1.3%
	1	0.4%	1.5%	3.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.2%
	2	0.5%	1.9%	3.7%	5.0%	5.0%	4.0%
	3	0.4%	1.6%	3.1%	4.2%	4.2%	3.4%
	4	0.2%	1.0%	2.0%	2.6%	2.6%	2.1%
	5	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%

FootyWow Elo verdict

Balanced Elo outlook

Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Recoleta +19.6, Antofagasta +25.8.

Thin confidence Upset risk: High Elo standalone

Recoleta Elo 1484 · +19.6

Antofagasta Elo 1534.4 · +25.8

Elo gapAntofagasta +15

Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%

Expected home share48%

Combined Elo3018.4

Deep Elo analysisOpen

Structural edge Balanced Elo outlook

Confidence band Thin confidence

Upset risk High

Model agreement Elo standalone

Combined Elo 3018.4

Elo home share 48%

Match tone Upset Watch

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Overall Elo	1484	1534.4
Form Elo	1501.7	1544.6
Home / Away Elo	1478.4	1490.4
Attack Elo	1480.8	1581.8
Defense Elo	1444	1534.7
Last 5 Elo change	+19.6	+25.8

The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Recoleta last-5 Elo change: +19.6; Antofagasta last-5 Elo change: +25.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Played	5	5
Form	67%	73%
Attack	100%	100%
Defense	8%	50%
Goals For (tot \| avg)	13 \| 2.6	12 \| 2.4
Goals Against (tot \| avg)	11 \| 2.2	6 \| 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20

Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60

Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20

Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.80

Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%

FT probability

2.5+

74%

FT probability

3.5+

53%

FT probability

BTTS

80%

FT probability

Yellow Cards

2-4

Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric	Recoleta			Antofagasta
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Played	4	4	8	4	4	8
Wins	50%	75%	63%	75%	25%	50%
Draws	25%	0%	13%	0%	50%	25%
Loses	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%

RecoletaWWLWWLWD

AntofagastaWLLWDWDW

League goals

Metric	Recoleta			Antofagasta
	H	A	T	H	A	T
GF total	7	11	18	8	7	15
GF avg	1.8	2.8	2.3	2.0	1.8	1.9
GA total	8	7	15	3	7	10
GA avg	2.0	1.8	1.9	0.8	1.8	1.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

Line	Recoleta		Antofagasta
	For	Against	For	Against
0.5	100%	75%	88%	63%
1.5	75%	63%	63%	50%
2.5	25%	25%	25%	13%
3.5	25%	13%	13%	0%
4.5	0%	13%	0%	0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

Metric	Recoleta			Antofagasta
	H	A	T	H	A	T
Clean sheets	1	1	2	2	1	3
Failed to score	0	0	0	0	1	1

Penalties

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0

Streaks

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Wins	2	1
Draws	0	1
Losses	1	2

Biggest results (H/A)

Metric	H	A	H	A
Biggest wins	2-0	2-4	4-0	0-2
Biggest losses	1-5	3-1	1-2	2-0
Goals For	2	4	4	3
Goals Against	5	3	2	3

Model comparison

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Form	48%	52%
Att	52%	48%
Def	35%	65%
Poisson Distribution	39%	61%
H2h	15%	85%
Goals	27%	73%
Total	36.0%	64.0%

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.80 @ William Hill

Draw3.32 @ Pinnacle

Away2.42 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.72 @ Unibet

No2.05 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.93 @ Betano

Under 2.51.90 @ Bet365

📊

League standings

Loading standings…

League page • Country page • Recoleta vs Antofagasta

Metric	Recoleta	Antofagasta
Scored (total \| %)	1 \| 100.00%	0 \| 0%
Missed (total \| %)	0 \| 0%	0 \| 0%
Total	1	0