Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 18:00 •
Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini
Expected Goals
2.33 (league 1.00)
0.87 (league 0.75)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.8% | 17.6% | 12.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.6%
1 - 0
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Gimnasia M. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Independ. Rivadavia | 0 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.0% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 113 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Independ. Rivadavia +43.9, Gimnasia M. -2.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Independ. Rivadavia
vs
Gimnasia M.
Elo gapIndepend. Rivadavia +113
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3185
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3185
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1631.3 | 1553.7 |
| Form Elo | 1646.7 | 1551.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1549 | 1515.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1560.7 | 1432 |
| Defense Elo | 1619.7 | 1621.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +43.9 | -2.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Independ. Rivadavia last-5 Elo change: +43.9; Gimnasia M. last-5 Elo change: -2.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 8 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Wins | 63% | 67% | 64% | 43% | 14% | 29% |
| Draws | 13% | 33% | 21% | 14% | 43% | 29% |
| Loses | 25% | 0% | 14% | 43% | 43% | 43% |
Independ. RivadaviaWWWWLWDDLWWWWD
Gimnasia M.WLLWLLDDDLLWDW
League goals
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 9 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 9 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 71% | 64% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 57% | 21% | 7% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 0% | 7% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | 1-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Independ. Rivadavia | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 72% | 28% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 59.5% | 40.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.86 @ 1xBet
Draw3.30 @ BetVictor
Away6.00 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.62 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.53 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.25 @ William Hill
No1.67 @ Betano
📊
League standings
Loading standings…